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Market Update 8-11-08
August 11th, 2008 3:40 PM

The more things change, the more they remain the same, or so the cliché goes. For Fannie Mae, not much is changing, but things are remaining the same. Fannie Mae continues to rack up losses and continues to slash its dividend. On the former, it posted a $2.3 billion loss in the second quarter after reporting a $2.5 billion lost in the first quarter. On the latter, the dividend was cut 86% this quarter after being cut 30% last quarter.

Fannie is in capital-raising mode, and many of us are providing the capital. One way Fannie is raising capital is by raising fees. For instance, Fannie announced last week that it is raising the “adverse market delivery” fee, which was introduced eight months ago. The original fee was $250 per $100,000 borrowed. Now the fee will double to $500 per $100,000 borrowed, meaning borrowing costs will be roughly an eighth of a point higher.

Not that we need higher borrowing costs; we don’t. Last week, the prime 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.74%, the prime 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.27%, while the 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 6.32%, according to Bankrate.com’s weekly survey.

Fortunately, the news was more upbeat in other sectors of the economy. Pending home sales rose 5.3% in June, according to the National Association of Realtors. What’s more, the rise was broad-based, occurring in all four major regions of the country. Could this be an indicator of a sustained rally off a bottom? It’s tough to say. If distressed transactions – short sales and foreclosed properties – are a lower percentage of the total, it could be.

Another positive sign for housing is falling oil prices, which dropped below $117/barrel last week. Oil prices have tumbled 30% in the past month, and gasoline prices are now well below $4/gallon in many parts of the country. Lower commuting and energy costs make houses, suburban houses in particular, more affordable, so let’s root for still lower oil prices in coming months.

Economic
Indicator
Release
Date and Time
Consensus
Estimate
Analysis

International Trade
(June)

Tues. Aug 12,
8:30 am, et

$60.5
Billion

Moderately important. The deficit should begin to contract on falling oil prices.

Mortgage
Applications

Wed. Aug 13,
7:00 am, et

None

Important. Lower home prices are stimulating a slight pick up in purchase activity.

Import Prices
(July)

Wed. Aug 13,
8:30 am, et

0.9%
(Increase)

Moderately Important. Prices are expected to spike on July’s spike in oil prices

Retail Sales
(July)

Wed. Aug 13,
8:30 am, et

0.2%
(Increase)

Important. Fewer auto sales remain a concern, but other segments of the economy are showing robust gains.

Business Sales
(June)

Wed. Aug 13,
10:00 am, et

Unchanged

Moderately Important. Sales continue to remain anemic, suggesting a possible slowdown in business activity.

Consumer Price
Index
(July)

Thurs. Aug 14,
8:30 am, et

All Goods: 0.5% (Increase)
Core: 0.2% (Increase)

Very Important. A slower rate of price increases could pull interest rates lower.

Industrial Production
(July)

Fri. Aug 15,
9:15 am, et

0.1%
(Decrease)
Moderately Important. The expected production decrease likely corresponds with July’s increase in energy prices.

MORE COMPETITION, PLEASE

Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s influence over the mortgage market is one of many reasons we should be happy when private competition returns. At this point, Fannie and Freddie are nickel-and-diming us to death to cover their mismanagement. Worse, they are strangling segments of the market that shouldn’t be strangled, such as the market for Alt-A loans.

Yes, Alt-A and subprime loans have caused a lot of heartache over the past two years, but it wasn’t the loans, per say, that caused the heartache: It was the pricing of the loans. Lenders and investors were insufficiently compensated for risk, but that doesn’t mean that borrowers with lower credit ratings or borrowers with irregular incomes should be eliminated from the mortgage market. On the contrary, they should be part of the market. The key is to have these borrowers pay rates and fees according to the risk they impose. In other words, it’s not the product but the way the product is applied.

Fortunately, private competition for Fannie and Freddie will return, bringing more liquidity and options. It can’t return soon enough.

Information above is courtesy of Melissa Breeland of Residential Mortgage of SC


Posted by Barbara Newton on August 11th, 2008 3:40 PM

Interest rates - Friday 8-29-08
August 29th, 2008 5:09 PM

LOAN PROGRAM

INTEREST RATE

APR

30 YR CONV FIXED

6.375%

6.472%

15 YR CONV FIXED

6.000%

6.097%

FHA/VA 30 YR FIXED

6.500%

6.597%

FHA/VA 3/1 ARM

5.750%

5.842%

RURAL HOUSING- USDA

6.500%

6.597%

SC STATE HOUSING (CATEGORY III AND DISABILITY PROGRAM)

6.000%

6.097%

*** Due to market fluctuations, interest rates are subject to change at any time and without notice. Interest rates are also subject to credit and property approval based on secondary market guidelines. The rates shown are based on average rates for the best qualified customers. Your individual rate may vary.

Above information courtesy of Melissa Breeland of Residential Mortage of SC


Posted by Barbara Newton on August 29th, 2008 5:09 PM

Regional reports on home values
August 29th, 2008 5:02 PM

RISMEDIA, August 29, 2008-

This week, Freddie Mac announced that its Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index (CMHPI) Purchase-Only Series registered a modest 0.4 percent annualized decline in U.S. home values during the second quarter of 2008.

Home values in some parts of the U.S. have remained stable or edged up. Most areas in the West South Central region (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas) experienced price gains over the quarter and the past year.”

The Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index (Purchase-Only) Series shows the following regional performances: (The CMHPI Purchase-Only Series excludes all refinancings in its calculation)

West South Central Division (AR, LA, OK, TX): rose 1.7 percent (7.0 percent, annualized) in the second quarter of 2008. Over the last 12 months, home values increased 1.6 percent, and during the last five years, home values increased 27.3 percent.

Middle Atlantic Division (NJ, NY, PA): decreased 0.5 percent (-2.2 percent, annualized) in the second quarter of 2008. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 2.6 percent, and during the last five years, home values increased 38.8 percent.

East South Central Division (AL, KY, MS, TN): increased 1.7 percent (7.0 percent, annualized) in the second quarter of 2008. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased -0.2 percent, and during the last five years, home values increased 26.7 percent.

East North Central Division (IL, IN, MI, OH, WI): increased 1.8 percent (7.5 percent, annualized) in the second quarter of 2008. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 4.0 percent, and during the last five years, home values increased 8.5 percent.

Mountain Division (AZ, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, UT, WY): decreased 0.6 percent (-2.6 percent, annualized) in the second quarter of 2008. In the last 12 months, home values decreased -5.6 percent; during the last five years, home values increased 39.5 percent.

West North Central Division (IA, KS, MN, MO, ND, NE, SD): increased 1.9 percent (7.7 percent, annualized) in the second quarter of 2008. Over the last 12 months, home values increased -2.3 percent; over the last five years, home values increased 15.8 percent.

South Atlantic Division (DC, DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV): decreased 0.3 percent (-1.0 percent, annualized) in the second quarter of 2008. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 5.5 percent, and during the last five years, home values increased 33.7 percent.

New England Division (CT, MA, ME, NH, RI, VT): increased 0.3 percent (1.2 percent, annualized) in the second quarter of 2008. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 5.1 percent, and during the last five years, home values increased 18.1 percent.

Pacific Division (AK, CA, HI, OR, WA): decreased 5.4 percent (-19.7 percent, annualized) in the second quarter of 2008. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 11.4 percent, and during the last five years, home values have increased 48.1 percent.

Jointly developed by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and first published by Freddie Mac starting in 1994, the Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index features indexes for the nine Census divisions as well as a national index.

The national index is the average of the nine divisional indexes weighted by the distribution of one-unit detached, single-family structures in each Census division.

Above article excerpts courtesy of RISMEDIA


Posted by Barbara Newton on August 29th, 2008 5:02 PM

Interest rates 8-18-08
August 18th, 2008 7:16 PM

LOAN PROGRAM

INTEREST RATE

APR

30 YR CONV FIXED

6.500%

6.597%

15 YR CONV FIXED

6.125%

6.221%

FHA/VA 30 YR FIXED

6.500%

6.597%

FHA/VA 3/1 ARM

5.750%

5.842%

RURAL HOUSING- USDA

6.750%

6.849%

SC STATE HOUSING (CATEGORY III AND DISABILITY PROGRAM)

6.000%

6.097%

*** Due to market fluctuations, interest rates are subject to change at any time and without notice. Interest rates are also subject to credit and property approval based on secondary market guidelines. The rates shown are based on average rates for the best qualified customers. Your individual rate may vary.

Above information is courtesy of Melissa Breeland of Residential Mortgage SC. Melissa has access to hundreds of loan programs. The programs and rates listed here are just the most popular. If you need something different please let her know and she will try to find it. She will beat or match any offer brought to her in writing from competitors for all FHA, VA and State Housing Loans.


Posted by Barbara Newton on August 18th, 2008 7:16 PM

Market update for the week of 8-18-08
August 18th, 2008 7:10 PM
The National Association of Realtors is on the side of Realtors, which is stating the obvious, so it tends to interpret housing data in a favorable light. For example, the NAR found in its survey of 150 metropolitan statistical areas that 35 of those areas had higher median existing single-family home prices than a year earlier. That sounds a bit better than what's been reported elsewhere in recent months.

But that's not to say the NAR won't report bad news; it will. The NAR also said that the median existing single-family home price fell 7.6% nationally in the second quarter. It blamed foreclosures and short sales -- which accounted for a third of transactions -- with pulling prices down.

It was also reported that the rate of decline is ebbing, but not from the NAR. While national price declines continue, nominal price drops have stabilized, according to housing price data released by First American CoreLogic. In fact, 883 of CoreLogic's core-based statistical areas registered no price change between June and July, according to Housingwire.com.

Good news could also be found in the consumer price index, which, at first glance, doesn't seem so good. Consumer prices rose 0.8% in July, which means the CPI is climbing at a 5.6% annual rate. The good news is that rate is unlikely to be sustained. Crude oil prices, a huge factor in rising prices, started to slide in early July, but gasoline prices didn't begin to decline until two weeks later. The big drop in energy prices in August means we should expect a significant drop in the rate of price increases in coming months.

Mortgage markets appear to agree with this assessment, for they hardly budged last week. According to Bankrate.com's weekly survey, the prime 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remained unchanged at 6.74%, while the prime 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 1 basis point to 6.26%.

Economic
Indicator
Release
Date and Time
Consensus
Estimate
Analysis

Housing Market Index
(August)

 

Mon. Aug. 18.
1:00 pm, et

 


16 Index

Moderately important. Home builders remain dour on
continued price cuts.

Housing Starts
(July)

 

Tues. Aug. 19.
8:30 am , et

 

950,000
(Annualized)

Important. Over the past few months, housing starts have been showing signs of stabilizing.

Producer Price Index
(July)

 

Tues. Aug. 19.
8:30 am , et

 

All Goods: 0.4% (Increase)
Core: 0.2%
(Increase)

 

Important. The PPI is expected to spike on July's record oil prices, but markets are expecting lower prices in the future.

Mortgage Applications

Wed. Aug. 20.
7:00 am, et

 

None

Important. The rise in rates, fewer mortgage products and tighter lending standards are weighing on recent application activity.

Leading Indicators
(July)

 

Thurs. Aug. 21.
8:30 am , et

 

No Change

Moderately Important. Markets are expecting to see signs of future improvement on the economic front.

WINDS OF CHANGE

For most of 2008, we've been walking into a hurricane-force wind. Recent economic data suggests that the wind, if not yet at our backs, is abating: oil prices continue to drop and are now below $112/barrel. Gold prices have tumbled below $800/ounce. The dollar continues to strengthen against the world's major currencies. Factory output is gaining steam. Major banks are easily raising capital to replace what was depleted during the subprime fiasco.

When the data points are aggregated, they suggest an improved business outlook – lower inflation, more activity – for the second half of 2008. The mortgage industry should benefit as much as any industry. Banks and other lending institutions are finally getting their houses in order, which means their ability and willingness to accept more risk will increase. An increased risk appetite means more money will be allocated to mortgage financing, which, in turn, will mean more funding options for consumers.

Above information courtesy of Melissa Breeland of Residential Mortgage of SC


Posted by Barbara Newton on August 18th, 2008 7:10 PM

Market update for the week of Aug. 4, 2008
August 4th, 2008 5:25 AM

Yesterday’s housing bill is today’s housing law. Among the highlights, first-time home buyers will receive a tax credit of 10% of the purchase price of their home, up to $7,500. If you are wondering how Congress defines a first-time home buyer, it’s someone who hasn’t owned a house in the past three years. The validity and efficacy of the credit has to be questioned, because it’s really not a credit; it must be repaid in equal installments over the subsequent 15 years.

Another highlight helps people who have fallen behind on their mortgages and who owe more than their houses are worth. In such situations, refinancing is difficult, if not impossible. The law seeks to resolve this dilemma by encouraging lenders to forgive delinquent borrowers’ debt down to 87% of the property’s current appraised value. At that point the homeowner can than refinance under an FHA plan (though he or she will be expected to pay higher FHA insurance premiums).

The new law imposes few changes on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Both institutions are a mess, yet the law oddly imposes no changes in management or business approach and no penalties on shareholders. Taxpayers instead are given two dubious protections: The first is that the treasury secretary will have the right to dictate terms if the government has to stump up equity capital for the firms. The second is the creation of a new regulator, whose effectiveness one must question, considering the effectiveness of past regulators.

Outside of the housing market, general economic health is waning. U.S. second-quarter gross domestic product came in below expectations, rising 1.9% versus expectations for a 2.2% rise. Slowing GDP, in turn, is impacting employment, and not in a good way. On Friday, the employment situation showed that payrolls declined by 51,000, pushing the unemployment rate up to 5.7%.

Economic
Indicator
Release
Date and Time
Consensus
Estimate
Analysis

Personal Income
& Expenditures
(June)

Mon. Aug. 4,
8:30 am, et

Income: 0.2% (Decrease)
Expenditures: 0.5%
(Increase)

Important. Falling income and rising expenditures provides evidence of further economic slowing.

Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting

Tues. Aug. 5,
2:15 pm, et

2.00% Federal
Funds Rate

Very Important. The Fed is expected to hold firm on interest rates, but inflationary pressures are raising the likelihood of rate increases.

Mortgage Applications

Wed. Aug. 6,
7:00 am, et

None

Important. Slow economic growth and higher mortgage rates have trimmed purchase activity.

Pending Home Sales
(July)

Thurs. Aug. 7,
10:00 am, et

1.2%
(Decrease)

Important. This NAR leading indication portends continued sales sluggishness.

Consumer Credit
(June)

Thurs. Aug. 7,
3:00 pm, et

$6 Billion
(Increase)

Moderately Important. The expected increase should have little impact on credit markets.

Productivity
& Costs
(2nd Quarter)

Fri. Aug. 8,
8:30 am, et

Productivity:
0.3% (Increase)
Costs: 0.0%

Very Important. Productivity outpacing costs will curb inflationary pressures.

Wholesale Trade
Sales
(June)

Fri. Aug. 8,
10:00 am, et

1.0%
(Increase)
Moderately Important. Business growth remains sluggish, but it still doesn’t suggest a recession.

LOWER OIL PRICES, HIGHER HOUSING PRICES

Congress is trying its darnedest to jump-start the housing market, but it’s too little, too late. The best medicine for housing, for the entire economy (housing doesn’t operate in a vacuum), is lower energy prices—lower oil and gas prices to be specific. Oil at $130/barrel and gasoline at $4/gallon are enormous drags on the economy. Both impact every facet of economic life, and current price levels are hitting middle-income families – the backbone of the housing market – particularly hard.

A drop in oil and gas prices would produce a corresponding rise in consumer confidence (a confident consumer is a spending consumer). So how do we lower prices? By increasing our supply. Market prices of oil and gas will fall on just the announcement of a likely supply increase because of the opportunity costs associated with keeping reserves in the ground. The impact to the economy would be immediate and salubrious.

We have all seen various housing districts rendered near-ghost towns because of exorbitant commuting costs, with gas prices being the primary contributor. Maybe if commuting weren’t so costly, the ghost towns wouldn’t be so ghostly.

Above information courtesy of Melissa Breeland of Residential Mortgage of SC


Posted by Barbara Newton on August 4th, 2008 5:25 AM

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